永恒牛市-牛市开空

OKB fell below 80 The market outlook is bullish But Don't rush to talk about a rebound before it climbs back above 80.6. The price dropped from 81.44 to 79.68, now back to 80.31, down 0.88% in 24 hours. This isn't a big drop, but the trend is clear: lower highs, moving averages pressing down hard, and rebound strength is insufficient. On the 15-minute chart, MA5 is at 80.41, MA10 at 80.44, MA20 at 80.59. The current price is below all these short-term moving averages, indicating that the bulls haven't regained control yet. The key level now is 80.6. Only by climbing back above this can OKB retest the 81.0 to 81.44 range. If it stays below 80.6, the price will likely oscillate between 80.0 and 80.4. If 79.68 breaks again, the short-term outlook will weaken further. The long-term logic for OKB remains intact, centered on the OKX platform ecosystem, X Layer, Gas usage, and the scarcity of the platform token. OKX previously announced that OKB will continue as the sole Gas and native token for X Layer; after the upgrade, the total supply of OKB is fixed at 21 million, which supports long-term valuation. However, the short-term market doesn't respond to long-term narratives. The main pressure on OKB now comes from the macro environment and market risk appetite. #加息重回讨论桌：美债利率逼近19年高点 The 30-year US Treasury yield recently rose to about 5.15%, the highest since 2007. Rising long-term rates suppress risk asset valuations. Under these conditions, platform tokens can't fully decouple from the broader market. If BTC and ETH continue to fall, OKB will struggle to rally on ecosystem stories alone. #SpaceX递交招股书：首次披露BTC持仓 SpaceX disclosed BTC holdings, which is a positive sentiment boost for the crypto market. Reports say SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC, worth about $1.45 billion. This reinforces the narrative of companies putting BTC on their balance sheets, but in the short term, the main benefit is for BTC itself. For OKB to benefit, exchange trading volume, platform activity, and market risk appetite all need to improve together. #英伟达完美财报：市场为何不买账 Nvidia's earnings were strong, with Q1 revenue at $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, but the market reaction was muted, indicating investors are starting to scrutinize valuations and growth prospects. If even AI leaders' good news is met with skepticism, short-term valuations for platform assets like OKB will also be pressured. My judgment is: OKB is currently in a weak consolidation phase. Only by reclaiming 80.6 is there a chance for recovery; breaking above 81.44 would signal short-term strength; falling below 79.68 would mean further weakness. So don't rush to call for an OKB rebound yet; first, see if the bulls can retake 80.6. Risk warning: This article is for crypto market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and market risks are high. Please make independent judgments and decisions based on your own risk tolerance. $BTC $ETH $ZEC

The May black swan is coming, The most dangerous level for ETH in this round is not 2100, but rather 2000 USD might be breached. From 2158 down to 2103, ETH is now just struggling near the lows, the rebound has not reclaimed the short-term moving averages. If 2103 breaks again, the market will most likely shift its focus directly to 2080–2050, and further down is the psychological barrier at 2000. ETH's 24-hour decline is currently 1.30%, with a high of 2158.07 and a low of 2103.18. In the 15-minute structure, MA5 is at 2113.19, MA10 at 2113.71, and MA20 at 2118.64. All prices are below the short-term moving averages, indicating that capital has not truly returned. This is not a strong rebound, nor a normal consolidation. This is a weak recovery after a breakdown. There are only three critical levels now: If 2118 is not reclaimed, ETH remains weak. If 2103 breaks again, 2000 will be repriced. If 2150 is not broken, don’t rush to call a reversal. This pressure is not only from ETH itself. #加息重回讨论桌：美债利率逼近19年高点 Long-term US Treasury yields remain high, and the market is starting to reconsider the possibility of rate hikes, which is very unfavorable for ETH. ETH is not a pure safe-haven asset; it relies more on liquidity, DeFi activity, L2 transaction volume, and risk appetite. When money becomes expensive, the market’s first reaction is not to buy ETH but to cut high-volatility assets first. #SpaceX递交招股书：首次披露BTC持仓 SpaceX disclosed BTC holdings, which adds positive sentiment to the crypto market, but more beneficial is the BTC balance sheet narrative. For ETH to keep up, it needs its own capital inflow signals. For example, ETF net inflows, on-chain revenue recovery, increased staking demand, or renewed DeFi activity. These signals are not strong enough yet. #英伟达完美财报：市场为何不买账 Nvidia’s earnings report is strong, but the market did not blindly chase. This shows that capital is starting to focus on valuation, not just the story. If even the AI leader’s positive news is being realized, risk assets like ETH are more likely to be dragged down. My judgment is straightforward: ETH remains weak in the short term; 2103 is the first critical lifeline. If it can’t hold here, the price will most likely continue to seek support at 2080–2050. If market sentiment worsens, the probability of testing 2000 USD will significantly increase. Only by reclaiming 2118 and then breaking through 2150 can ETH rewrite this downtrend as a recovery. Otherwise, this macro black swan in May could directly push ETH down to the low 2000s. Risk warning: This article is for crypto market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the market carries high risk. Please make independent judgments and decisions based on your own risk tolerance. #加息重回讨论桌：美债利率逼近19年高点 #SpaceX递交招股书：首次披露BTC持仓 #英伟达完美财报：市场为何不买账 $BTC $ZEC $HYPE

Will it rise or fall tonight? Every May brings a black swan! Look BTC is showing weak short-term volatility in this round; it hasn't reclaimed 77,500 yet, so the rebound is considered a correction. After falling from 78,161.5 to 77,045.7, BTC is now around 77,313.5, down slightly by 0.14% in 24 hours. This indicates selling pressure near 78,000 remains, and short-term funds are not chasing higher. In the 15-minute structure, MA5 is at 77,207.4, MA10 at 77,219.5, and MA20 at 77,464.6. Although the price has reclaimed MA5 and MA10, it is still below MA20. So this is not a shift to strength, just a rebound after a drop. Key levels are clear: Only if BTC reclaims 77,500 can it retest 77,800–78,161. Holding 77,000 means short-term sideways movement is possible. Breaking 76,858 means this correction will turn weak again. The biggest pressure in this theme remains interest rates. The 30-year US Treasury yield has risen to 5.18%, the highest since 2007; continued rise in long-term rates will directly suppress valuations of risk assets like BTC. So BTC doesn’t lack positive factors now, but the macro environment is unfavorable. With rate hikes back on the table, funds will be more cautious. SpaceX filing for IPO and disclosing BTC holdings is a positive sentiment factor for BTC. Market reports mention that SpaceX’s IPO documents may reveal its BTC holdings publicly for the first time, reinforcing the narrative of "corporate balance sheets allocating BTC." But this positive is more medium to long term and insufficient to immediately change the 15-minute level trend. Nvidia’s earnings report is also critical. Nvidia’s revenue grew 85% year-over-year to $81.62 billion, a strong performance, but the after-hours market reaction was hesitant, indicating funds don’t distrust AI but are concerned about valuation and whether future growth can continue to exceed expectations. If AI leaders continue to attract capital, BTC may just follow the risk appetite recovery. If AI benefits are realized and funds flow back into crypto, BTC will more easily challenge above 78,000 again. My judgment: BTC is currently in a weak correction phase. 77,500 is the confirmation of recovery. 78,161 is the confirmation of a breakout. 76,858 is the invalidation level. Before reclaiming 77,500, BTC is not suitable to be described as a strong counterattack. Risk warning: This article is for crypto market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and market risks are high. Please make independent judgments and decisions based on your own risk tolerance. #加息重回讨论桌：美债利率逼近19年高点 #SpaceX递交招股书：首次披露BTC持仓 #英伟达完美财报：市场为何不买账 $ETH $ZEC $HYPE

Interest Rate Hike Back on the Table: US Treasury Yields Near 19-Year High; SpaceX Files IPO Prospectus: BTC Holdings Disclosed for the First Time; Nvidia's Perfect Earnings Report: Why the Market Isn't Buying It Market Dynamics Recently, the global financial markets have been turbulent, with several major events drawing attention. US Treasury yields are approaching 19-year highs, reigniting concerns over inflationary pressures; SpaceX has filed its IPO prospectus, disclosing BTC holdings for the first time, sparking industry interest in its crypto asset strategy; Nvidia reported a stellar earnings report, exceeding expectations but facing a stock price pullback, with underlying reasons that are intriguing. Event Details US Treasury Yields Near 19-Year High Recently, major developed economies' bond markets have experienced heavy sell-offs, with core government bond yields in the US, Japan, and UK surging collectively. The 10-year US Treasury yield quickly broke above 4.6%, reaching a one-year high, while the 30-year yield climbed to a near 19-year peak. The main driver behind rising yields is market concern over a potential Iran war triggering oil price spikes, which could ignite a new round of global inflationary pressures. Expectations are also rising that the Federal Reserve and other central banks may continue raising rates due to sustained energy shocks. SpaceX Files IPO Prospectus, Discloses BTC Holdings for the First Time According to Reuters citing insiders, Elon Musk's SpaceX has accelerated its IPO timeline and plans to publicly release its prospectus as early as this week, with roadshows starting June 4 and a potential Nasdaq listing on June 12 under the ticker SPCX, targeting approximately $75 billion in fundraising. In May, the company revised its credit arrangements, increasing borrowing capacity to up to $5 billion. The IPO underwriters include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Securities, Citigroup, and JPMorgan. The prospectus also reveals SpaceX's BTC holdings for the first time, drawing widespread industry attention to its crypto asset portfolio. Musk's shares will only unlock upon achieving a Mars settlement population of at least one million and establishing a permanent human colony on Mars, reflecting the company's vision for multi-planetary human survival. Nvidia's Perfect Earnings Report, Yet Stock Pulls Back On May 20 after US market close, Nvidia released its Q1 FY2027 earnings report. The report showed EPS of $1.87 and revenue of $81.62 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.77 EPS and $79.18 billion revenue. The company also raised its quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share. Nvidia's data center business contributed the majority of revenue at $75.2 billion, beating Wall Street estimates of $73.47 billion and far exceeding last year's $39.11 billion. For Q2, Nvidia expects revenue between $89.1 billion and $92.8 billion, above the prior Wall Street forecast of $87.3 billion. However, despite beating expectations, the stock remained flat and pulled back in after-hours trading, prompting various market speculations. Market Reactions Stock Market Performance On May 18 Beijing time, Japanese and South Korean markets opened lower. The Nikkei 225 opened down 0.18% at 61,299.87; South Korea's KOSPI opened down 0.67% at 7,443.29. Last week, the three major US indices showed mixed results: Dow Jones down 0.17% weekly, Nasdaq down 0.08%, and S&P 500 up 0.13%. European markets closed lower last week: UK FTSE 100 down 0.37%, France CAC 40 down 1.97%, Germany DAX down 1.59%. On May 19 US market close: Dow Jones down 0.65%, S&P 500 down 0.67%, Nasdaq down 0.84%. On Wednesday, May 21, Nvidia led US market volume with a 1.30% gain and $35.079 billion in trading volume. Bond Market Performance Global bond markets have been volatile recently, with major developed economies facing heavy sell-offs and core government bond yields in the US, Japan, and UK surging collectively. The US 10-year Treasury yield hovered near a 15-month high, with European and Asian bond yields also climbing to multi-year highs. When risk aversion and inflation fears subside, US Treasury yields tend to retreat from highs, as seen in a roughly 10 basis point drop in the 10-year yield previously. Forex and Commodities Market Performance Prospects of a US-Iran agreement have driven volatility in forex and commodity markets. Expectations of peace talks caused the dollar to retreat from a six-week high, while non-US currencies like the euro, pound, and yen collectively rebounded; easing tensions triggered a sharp drop in crude oil prices, with Brent and US crude both plunging, US crude falling below $100; the oil price collapse eased inflation concerns, and combined with a plunge in US Treasury yields, spot gold rose over 1% against the trend. These complex market reactions intertwine with US Treasury yields, SpaceX's IPO, and Nvidia's earnings report, leaving future market trends uncertain. Investors should closely monitor developments and prepare for risk management. #加息重回讨论桌：美债利率逼近19年高点 #SpaceX递交招股书：首次披露BTC持仓 #英伟达完美财报：市场为何不买账 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

Tokenization of U.S. stocks? Can it be traded in the crypto circle? No kidding Here it comes URNM is initially treated as weak in the short term; unless it reclaims 58.2, it’s not suitable to expect a rebound directly. After listing this time, it fell from 58.97 to around 58.00, now at 58.08, down 1.49% in 24 hours. Trading time is still short; in the 15-minute structure, only MA5 is present, positioned at 58.23. The current price is below MA5, indicating weak support after the first wave of opening. Next, focus on 58.00. If it holds here, URNM can still consolidate at a low level around 58.0–58.3. Only if it climbs back above 58.23 can the short-term recovery be considered to have started. If it breaks below 58.00, selling pressure from the new contract’s initial listing phase may continue to release. URNM corresponds to the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF, mainly tracking uranium mining companies and physical uranium-related assets. According to Sprott’s official website, this ETF was restructured in 2022 from the North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF, with a core focus on uranium mining and the nuclear energy industry chain exposure. This sector is directly related to the current macro theme. Interest rate hikes are back on the discussion table, with long-term U.S. Treasury yields approaching a 19-year high, pressuring risk asset valuations. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield recently hovers around 5.1%–5.18%, at a high level. In a high-interest-rate environment, stock-type contracts like URNM face valuation pressure, but it also has its own independent logic: AI data center power consumption growth, nuclear power revaluation, and tight uranium supply and demand. Nuclear energy investment is heating up again, largely because of increased power demand from AI and data centers. The market is starting to refocus on nuclear power, uranium mining, and related ETFs. SpaceX’s IPO filing and BTC holdings disclosure also strengthen the connection between traditional markets and crypto assets. MarketWatch reported that SpaceX disclosed holding 18,712 BTC, valued at about $1.45 billion. This is not a direct positive for URNM but indicates that the narrative space for such stock perpetual contracts on OKX is expanding: crypto traders are simultaneously trading U.S. stocks, ETFs, commodity industry chains, and BTC balance sheet stories. Nvidia’s earnings report is strong, with revenue up 85% year-over-year to $81.62 billion, but the stock price remains under pressure after hours because the market is starting to worry about valuation and future growth pace. If AI trading continues to diverge, capital may spread from pure semiconductors to power, nuclear energy, and uranium mining—these "AI infrastructure power supply" directions. My judgment is: URNM just launched and is weak in the short term; first watch if 58.00 can hold. Reclaiming 58.23 means recovery. Breaking through 58.97 means turning strong again. Breaking below 58.00 means further decline. Risk warning: This article is for market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Related contract prices fluctuate greatly, and market risks are high. Please make independent judgments and cautious decisions based on your own risk tolerance. #加息重回讨论桌：美债利率逼近19年高点 #SpaceX递交招股书：首次披露BTC持仓 #英伟达完美财报：市场为何不买账 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

Resistance has been broken The stars and the sea, the future is promising Got 0.1 cost out ALLO can still be expected to continue its upward move, but before a volume breakout above 0.0892, treat it as a strong consolidation. Price pulled from 0.08516 to 0.08921, now around 0.08905, with a 24-hour increase of 4.75%. The trend is steadier than before; the pullback did not break below the short-term moving averages, indicating funds are still in the market. In the 15-minute structure, MA5 is at 0.08863, MA10 at 0.08864, and MA20 at 0.08841. Price stands above all three moving averages, short-term remains strong. Next key focus is on 0.0884—0.0886. Holding here, ALLO still has a chance to test 0.08921 again. If volume breaks through 0.0892, the short-term will continue to test above 0.090. If it falls below 0.0884, this rally will enter a pullback confirmation; falling below 0.0876 will cool down the short-term strength. ALLO's narrative is a decentralized AI network. According to the OKX listing announcement, Allora is a self-improving decentralized AI network that allows applications to use smarter, safer AI through a network of machine learning models; Allora's official statement also emphasizes its ecosystem covers infrastructure, DeFi, and AI innovation partners. So this topic is directly related to #英伟达完美财报：市场为何不买账. NVIDIA's earnings are strong, with revenue up 85% year-over-year to $81.62 billion, but the stock price faced pressure after hours, indicating the market is not rejecting AI but starting to scrutinize valuation and growth sustainability. If funds continue to bet on AI, crypto AI assets like ALLO will be sentiment-driven. But if US stock AI enters a phase of benefit realization, ALLO is likely to pull back accordingly. SpaceX's disclosure of BTC holdings will reinforce expectations for institutional asset allocation and crypto assets entering traditional financing narratives; related reports show SpaceX has submitted an S-1 and disclosed BTC-related holdings. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields are approaching a 19-year high, with the 30-year yield touching 5.2% at one point, keeping valuation pressure on risk assets. My judgment: ALLO is currently strong but short-term depends on whether 0.0892 can be broken. Hold 0.0884, continue to expect strong consolidation. Break 0.0892, short-term continues upward. Break 0.0876, rally structure cools down. Risk warning: This article is for crypto market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the market carries high risk. Please make independent judgments and cautious decisions based on your own risk tolerance. #加息重回讨论桌：美债利率逼近19年高点 #SpaceX递交招股书：首次披露BTC持仓 #英伟达完美财报：市场为何不买账 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

Price fluctuations are beyond control Fortune favors the bold Place a lottery bet OPN is currently showing a short-term tendency to pull back and oscillate; until it recovers above 0.184, do not treat it as continuing to rise. The price has fallen from 0.1890 to 0.1827, still up 3.10% over 24 hours, but the 15-minute trend has shifted from upward momentum to downward pressure. MA5 is at 0.1828, MA10 at 0.1843, and MA20 at 0.1844. The current price is just touching MA5 and is clearly below MA10 and MA20, indicating insufficient short-term rebound strength. The key focus next is the 0.184–0.185 range. Only by reclaiming this level does OPN have a chance to retest 0.1890. If it continues to stay below 0.184, the price will likely oscillate around 0.181–0.183. If it breaks below 0.180, the short-term structure will weaken further. OPN’s core narrative is the prediction market. Binance Research describes OPINION as the “People’s Terminal for Global Economic Trading,” aiming to create a tradable market from macro events, market views, and economic expectations. This theme is highly relevant to current topics. With interest rate hikes back on the discussion table and long-term US Treasury yields approaching a 19-year high, risk assets are under pressure, but the greater the macro divergence, the more the trading demand in prediction markets tends to amplify. SpaceX’s IPO filing and its first disclosure of BTC holdings will also stimulate renewed market attention on the combination of “traditional assets + crypto assets + event-driven trading.” MarketWatch reported that SpaceX disclosed holding 18,712 BTC, valued at about $1.45 billion. NVIDIA’s earnings report is also critical. Revenue grew 85% year-over-year to $81.62 billion, a strong figure, but the stock price remained weak after hours, indicating the market is not rejecting the results but is starting to worry about valuation and sustainability of future growth. This has a direct impact on OPN. If AI earnings, US Treasury yields, and the SpaceX IPO continue to create divergence, the prediction market narrative will gain momentum. However, the short-term chart has not yet reclaimed the moving averages, and capital has not re-entered aggressively. My judgment is: OPN is currently weak and oscillating. Reclaiming 0.184 is needed for recovery. Breaking through 0.189 will signal short-term strength again. Breaking below 0.180 will lead to further decline. Risk warning: This article is for informational analysis of the crypto market only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the market carries significant risk. Please make independent judgments and decisions based on your own risk tolerance. #加息重回讨论桌：美债利率逼近19年高点 #SpaceX递交招股书：首次披露BTC持仓 #英伟达完美财报：市场为何不买账 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

Small-cap coins really pull the plug at will Since chips haven't been distributed, a pump is inevitable EDEN is still rising in this round, but it has already shifted from a strong pull to high-level turnover, so the area around 0.120 cannot be directly considered a safe zone. This wave pulled from 0.09332 to 0.13879, now back to 0.12028, with a 24-hour increase of 38.28%. The rise is sharp, but the pullback is also obvious, indicating that profit-taking above has already begun. In the 15-minute structure, MA5 is at 0.11795, MA10 at 0.11923, and MA20 at 0.12318. The price stands above MA5 and MA10 but has not yet reclaimed MA20. This means there is still short-term support, but the strong recovery is incomplete. Next, focus on 0.120—0.123. Only by stabilizing above 0.123 does EDEN have a chance to test 0.130—0.13879 again. If it falls below 0.118, short-term consolidation will continue. If 0.110 is broken, this high-level structure will clearly cool down. The theme of EDEN this time cannot be viewed solely from the perspective of RWA itself. US Treasury yields are approaching a 19-year high, with the 30-year Treasury yield once rising to about 5.15%—5.18%. High interest rates themselves suppress risk asset valuations but also bring on-chain US Treasuries and on-chain yield assets back into market focus. So the contradiction for EDEN is clear: macro pressures risk assets, but the high-yield environment strengthens the RWA narrative. SpaceX filing IPO documents and disclosing BTC holdings also sends a new signal to the market. MarketWatch reported that SpaceX disclosed holding 18,712 BTC, worth about $1.45 billion; Crypto Briefing also reported its submission of the S-1 registration filing, prompting renewed market discussion on BTC allocation in corporate balance sheets. This is not a direct positive for EDEN but reinforces one direction: the boundaries between traditional companies, real assets, and on-chain assets are continuing to blur. Nvidia's earnings report is also critical. Nvidia's revenue grew 85% year-over-year to $81.62 billion, a strong performance, but the stock price remained weak after hours. The core reason is the market's growing concern over high valuation and the sustainability of AI growth. If AI funds continue to concentrate in US stock leaders, EDEN may just follow the sentiment. If AI trading diverges, funds might instead return to RWA, on-chain yields, and compliant assets. My judgment is: EDEN hasn't turned bad yet but is no longer in a low-level chase phase. Holding above 0.123 means continuing to watch for strong recovery. Breaking through 0.13879 will accelerate sentiment again. Breaking below 0.110 will clearly cool short-term heat. Risk warning: This article is only an analysis of the crypto market information and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices fluctuate greatly, and market risks are high. Please make independent judgments and decisions based on your own risk tolerance. #加息重回讨论桌：美债利率逼近19年高点 #SpaceX递交招股书：首次披露BTC持仓 #英伟达完美财报：市场为何不买账 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

Is the opportunity here? Try your luck with a trial fund What if you get rich? BNB can still push above 655 in the short term, but until there is a volume breakout, treat it as strong consolidation. This round pulled from around 645.1 to 655.0, now the price is at 653.8, with a 24-hour increase of 0.81%. The increase is not large, but the structure is relatively stable, with the price consistently hugging the short moving averages upward. In the 15-minute structure, MA5 is at 654.0, MA10 at 654.1, and MA20 at 653.0. The current price is slightly below MA5 and MA10 but still above MA20, indicating the short-term trend is not bad, just some resistance starting above. Next, focus on 653–654. If this level holds, BNB still has a chance to test 655 again. If it breaks above 655 with volume, the next step could open up room for upward correction. If it falls below 653, the price may oscillate around 650; if 645.1 is broken again, this round of correction needs to be reassessed. The core fundamentals of BNB remain the exchange ecosystem, BNB Chain gas, staking, DeFi, and on-chain application demand. BNB Chain officially disclosed that the 34th quarterly burn has been completed, and the BEP95 mechanism has cumulatively burned about 281,000 BNB, this continuous deflationary mechanism supports long-term valuation. But the short-term market is not only about its own ecosystem. US Treasury yields remain high, with the 30-year yield around 5.18%, significantly higher than the previous trading day and the same period last year; long-term rates will continue to suppress risk asset valuations. So for BNB to continue strengthening, BTC needs to stabilize, and market risk appetite should not suddenly turn cold. #Trading US stocks on OKX: Which side to bet on the AI giants? This trend will continue to influence capital flows. Nvidia’s latest earnings continue to exceed expectations, with revenue up 85% year-over-year to $81.62 billion, and next quarter’s revenue guidance also above expectations, indicating the AI theme is still alive. If US stocks’ AI sector remains strong, risk appetite will support the crypto market. But if funds are overly concentrated in semiconductor and AI leaders, platform assets like BNB may mostly follow corrections and may not be the strongest rebound direction. The Samsung negotiation breakdown mainly affects chip supply chain sentiment. South Korean media report that Samsung’s labor negotiations have broken down, possibly triggering an 18-day strike involving over 40,000 employees, mainly in chip manufacturing departments. If supply chain risks escalate, AI trading volatility will increase, affecting overall risk asset sentiment. My judgment: BNB is currently in a strong consolidation. Hold 653, continue to watch for recovery. Break 655, short-term strength improves. Break 650, enter consolidation. Break 645.1, correction structure fails. Risk warning: This article is for crypto market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices fluctuate greatly, and market risks are high. Please make independent judgments and cautious decisions based on your own risk tolerance. #加息重回讨论桌：美债利率逼近19年高点 #SpaceX递交招股书：首次披露BTC持仓 #英伟达完美财报：市场为何不买账 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

Is this wave more long or short? If it holds above 78,000, it will push to 80,000. BTC can still test above 78,000 in the short term, but it’s not a one-sided strong attack now; it looks more like a high-level tug after a correction. Price is around 77,915, with a 24-hour increase of 0.63%, a high of 78,161.5, and a low of 76,588.0. This round pulled back from 76,858 to near 78,000, indicating that support at the low level still exists, but there hasn’t been a volume breakout above. In the 15-minute structure, MA5 is at 77,947, MA10 at 77,918, and MA20 at 77,735. Price is running close to MA5 and MA10, so short-term strength remains. However, if it can’t firmly hold 78,000, it’s likely to return to oscillate between 77,600 and 77,800. Next, focus on three key levels: Whether 78,000 can hold. Whether 78,161 can be broken. Whether 77,500 can be defended. As long as 77,500 doesn’t break, BTC can continue to be viewed as oscillating with a slight bullish bias. If it falls below 77,300, the quality of short-term recovery will decline. If 76,588 is broken, this rebound basically fails. On the macro side, pressure remains. The 30-year US Treasury yield has risen to 5.18%, near the highest level since 2007; high long-term rates will continue to suppress risk asset valuations. So BTC can’t just rely on sentiment within the crypto circle now. As long as US Treasury yields keep pressure, both US stocks and crypto assets will face valuation pressure. The AI dual giants line is also very important. Nvidia’s latest earnings exceeded expectations, with revenue up 85% year-over-year to $81.62 billion; next quarter’s revenue guidance is also higher than expected, but the after-hours stock price still slightly pressured, indicating that capital has started to pick valuation quality. If AI and semiconductors continue to stabilize US stock risk appetite, BTC has a chance to follow the recovery. If AI benefits are realized and then retreat, BTC may also be dragged back into the oscillation zone. The Samsung line needs an update. Previous negotiation breakdown indeed triggered large-scale strike risks, but the latest news shows Samsung’s union has reached a temporary wage agreement with management; the originally planned 18-day strike is postponed, still pending union member vote confirmation. This means chip supply chain risks have eased in the short term, and capital attention may continue to stay on AI and US tech stocks. My judgment is straightforward: BTC is now oscillating with a slight bullish bias, and the core focus is 78,000. Hold above 78,000, continue to look for upward recovery. Break 78,161, short-term sentiment will strengthen. Break below 77,500, be cautious of returning to oscillation. Risk warning: This article is for crypto market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices fluctuate greatly, and market risks are high. Please make independent judgments and decisions based on your own risk tolerance. #美债利率近19年新高：风险资产全线承压 #在OKX交易美股：AI双雄押哪边？ #三星谈判破裂：史上最大规模罢工确定启动 $ETH $ZEC $SOL